Arrieta Needs To Regain “Elite” Status For The Cubs And Himself

When the season began in April, the bullpen made me nervous. The rotation did the opposite after being virtually untouchable in 2016. Come June, the roles have reversed. The bullpen looks stronger than ever , which is due, in large part, to Mike Montgomery’s ability to pitch in any situation, coupled with Wade Davis’ consistency as the closer. The starting pitching, on the other hand, has been under a microscope all year. But no one has taken more heat (no pun intended) than Jake Arrieta, and rightfully so.

Arrieta will face a below-average Marlins squad tonight, looking to build on his last start, which is imperative for a number of reasons.

On a personal level, Arrieta doesn’t want to cost himself $100 million, or more, when he hits the free agency market this winter. Maybe he doesn’t care about money. Maybe he’s content with his 4.60 ERA, 5-4 record and losing three out of his last four decisions. Maybe he’s content with his Cy Young, All-Star appearances and World Series ring. Maybe that’s enough. I mean, is $100 million really that much money?

Um, yeah…it is.

Let’s forget about the Cubs’ season for a second. Wouldn’t the financial implications be incentive enough? Something isn’t adding up. The trouble seemingly started after the All-Star break last year. For some reason, he couldn’t locate his pitches. In 2016, Arrieta allowed 76 walks, which is 28 more walks than his 2015 Cy Young campaign. This season, he’s allowed 17 walks in 11 starts, which is just over one walk per game. Not bad, right? Then, what’s the problem now?

Arrieta knows what’s at stake, and he’s never used the word “complacent” in his life. His middle name is “work.” His safe word during workouts is “keep going” (I know that’s two words). Arrieta is a savage, an alpha male in every sense of the word.

I know, right? That still doesn’t answer the question. If anything, it adds more questions to the list. How can a guy with that much drive, that much fire and motivation fall from the top of the mountain so quickly?

I’ve said it before, but his diminishing velocity is a concern. Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras still maintains he’s still an elite pitcher with an elite fastball, comparing him to Max Scherzer in the process. Has Boras watched him pitch? Has he looked at the numbers? Numbers don’t lie. Boras should know that best. He is an agent, after all.

Still, I don’t believe, and won’t believe, that Arrieta will go Mark Prior on the Cubs and flame out. He is on the wrong side of 30, but his stuff still looks good — definitely better than his 4.80 ERA suggests.

From the Cubs’ perspective, they want to get the most out of Arrieta while they can. Without the rotation’s one-two punch of Lester and Arrieta, the Cubs have a below-average pitching staff. Both of them performed at the highest level to win the World Series. If you think the Cubs make the playoffs this year without the same level of performance, you must be an internet troll from St. Louis — like this guy.

(Photo Courtesy: Riverfront Times)

The Cubs don’t want Arrieta to turn it around; they need him to turn it around. If he doesn’t, the implications will cost both the team and Arrieta equally. It’s June, and tonight’s start could be needs to be the first step in regaining his “elite” status. Not just in the eyes of his agent, but in everyone’s.

I’m looking forward to more of these highlights when he does. Fly the W!